关键词:
Spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis
Global Logistic Regression(GLR)
Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression(GWLR)
traffic crash
urban built environment
摘要:
Road traffic crashes are becoming thorny issues being faced *** crashes are spatio-temporal events and the research on the spatiotemporal patterns and variation trends of traffic crashes has been carried ***,the impact of built environment on traffic crash spatiotem-poral trends has not received much ***,the spatial non-stationarity between the variation trends of traffic crashes and their influencing factors is usually *** make up for the lack of analysis of built environment factors influencing spatiotemporal hotspot trends in traffic crashes,this paper proposed a method of"ST-GWLR"for analyzing the influence of built environ-ment factors on spatiotemporal hotspot trends of traffic crashes by combining the spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression(GWLR)modeling ***,the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends were explored using the space-time cube model,hotspot analysis,and Mann-Kendall trend ***,the GWLR was introduced to capture the spatial non-stationarity neglected by the classic Global Logistic Regression(GLR)model,to improve the accuracy of the model *** model is used for the first time to analyze the significant local correlation between the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends and the built environment factors,to accurately and effectively identify the built environment factors that have significant influences on the hotspot trends of traffic *** performance of the GWLR models and GLR models was examined and compared *** results showed that the proposed ST-GWLR,which captured spatial non-stationarity,performed better than the classic GLR combined with spatiotemporal analysis,and improved the prediction accuracy of the models by 14.9%,13.9%,and 15.1%,*** were significant local correlations between intensifying hotspots and persistent hotspots of traffic crashes and the built environment facto