摘要： Projected glacier change has important downstream consequences, including sea level rise, changing freshwater supply, and loss of important cultural sites. While the glacier contribution to global sea level rise and associated uncertainties have been quantified in model intercomparison studies, comparatively less focus has been directed towards the interannual changes in runoff caused by glacier recession. The observed effect of glacier runoff on basin-level water availability makes simulated future runoff a particularly consequential target for analysis. In this study, we compare century-scale runoff simulated by three global glacier evolution models. Aggregating annual glacier runoff contributions to 75 globally distributed major river basins, we find that the three models agree closely in some basins but differ dramatically (up to a factor of 3.8) in others. However, when we analyze century-scale runoff changes relative to a glacier model's historical runoff baseline, annual runoff projections are much more consistent across glacier models. Glacier models project broadly consistent relative changes in seasonal runoff supply, with some differences across climatic regions. Estimates of the year of peak water are more consistent across glacier models (when driven by a climate model ensemble) than across individual climate forcings within a single glacier model. We identify the glacier models' different approaches to modifying precipitation forcing as the dominant source of inter-model differences in projected runoff. Our findings highlight the comparative roles of glacier evolution model, global climate model forcing, and emissions scenario as important sources of uncertainty across different metrics of projected glacier runoff. For example, inter-glacier-model uncertainty in absolute annual runoff is large, but the year of projected peak water has much greater inter-climate-model uncertainty. We recommend that users pay particular attention to how a selected glacie

关键词： Composite Predictive Value   Acute Myocardial Infarction   NLR   PLR  

摘要： Objectives To assess the prognostic efficacy of innovative inflammatory indicators, specifically the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), in conjunction with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, for predicting adverse in-hospital outcomes among patients diagnosed with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Design and setting This study is a single-centre retrospective analysis of patients with STEMI treated at the Cardiology Department of Tianjin Third Central Hospital between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2023. All data were sourced from the hospital's medical record *** measures The integration of the GRACE score with NLR and PLR facilitated the creation of an innovative predictive model. The model's predictive efficacy for in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) occurrence was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Additionally, the Net Reclassification Improvement and Integrated Discrimination Improvement were computed to quantify enhancements in predictive *** Patients were stratified into the MACE (N=167) and the non-MACE group (N=1011) based on the incidence of MACE. A comparison of baseline characteristics between the two groups revealed 13 potential confounding variables. The NLR and PLR levels were converted into binary variables using ROC curve analysis. Univariate logistic regression indicated that both NLR and PLR were significant risk factors for MACE during hospitalisation. After adjusting for confounders, multivariate logistic regression confirmed NLR as an independent predictor of MACE risk in this cohort. Furthermore, both NLR and PLR augmented the predictive accuracy of the GRACE score, with their combined use offering a significant improvement in its predictive *** The NLR possesses the capability to independently forecast the risk of MACE during

关键词： Secularism and education   religious literacy   Ethics and Religious Culture Programme   Quebec  

摘要： In this article, I examine the secular dynamics of Quebec's controversial and ultimately short-lived Ethics and Religious Culture curriculum (ERC). I argue that the conflicting criticisms the ERC attracted over the course of its brief existence emerged from the tensions inherent in its conceptualisations of religion, learning, and knowledge. These tensions were themselves rooted in the constitutive concepts and epistemic assumptions of Quebec's broader socio-spiritual context of political secularism. In this way, my analysis makes a broader argument about the dynamics and viability of religious education programming in secular societies, especially those programmes aimed at fostering 'religious literacy'.

关键词： Mortuary practices   Andean archaeology   social memory   place making   legacy collection  

摘要： Through the control of social memory and the dead, household members in Argentinian Andean early Formative villages often used primary and secondary mortuary practices to negotiate power and identity among the living. In this paper, we explore the material evidence obtained in the large-scale salvage excavations of El Cadillal, Argentina, where 51 burials were recovered from three burial sites. Between a.d. 0 and 900, people living in the southeastern rainforests placed deceased household members in ceramic urns and, less frequently, inside of rock enclosures and pits surrounded by a range of grave offerings. Drawing upon this case study, we attempt to disentangle the complex web of relationships between the dead, the living, and the El Cadillal community in order to assess how social memories were crafted through primary and secondary mortuary events and how the repetition of mortuary rituals created a social landscape and memories of the dead.

摘要： In 2011, French football experienced a defining moment when Qatar Sports Investments acquired a majority stake in Paris St. Germain (PSG). The initial 30 million investment was one of many investments made by wealth funds from the Gulf States in European football, but only a few have had such a transformative effect. The investment in the club was the starting point that led to the rise of PSG becoming the leading football club in France. This paper is the first to examine the investment in light of true value creation from PSG's and QSI's perspectives. The review of its sporting, economic, social, and media capital reveals that PSG's sporting success and initiation of a global brand came with a high cost but generated indirect returns for QSI. Ultimately, QSI's long-term commitment might capitalize with Arctos' co-investment in December 2023.

关键词： Heritage   space   Black communities   Bristol  

摘要： This article explores Black heritage spaces in St Pauls, Bristol and investigates how Black urban communities use inner-city landscapes and neighbourhoods for the production and celebration of own heritage spaces. While the city has been the site of an important demonstration of public contestation of authorised heritage, when the statue of slave trader Edward Colston was toppled on 7 June 2020, there has been a history of Black heritage practices and spaces. Using ethnographic methods, such as participant observation, chatting, walking through the neighbourhood and participating in local events, the article examines these alternative heritage spaces, where Black heritage is produced, (re-)defined and presented by the community who actively remember, recognise and celebrate their legacies in the urban space.

关键词： Economics education   fiscal policy   4th Industrial Revolution   jobless recovery   A22   E62   O03  

摘要： Following Paul Samuelson (1948), every principles of economics textbook has a section on fiscal policy, which has evolved over time. A conventional assertion is that output and employment move together, so when fiscal policy fully stabilizes the economy, output and employment return to pre-recession levels. However, for the last four recessions, rebounds in output are accompanied by much slower employment recoveries-jobless recoveries. Economists attribute this to the skill-biased nature of technologies fostering the 4th Industrial Revolution. Conventional fiscal policy analysis presented in leading introductory economics textbooks does not address this situation adequately. This article's authors believe it is time to update the teaching of fiscal policy to reflect this 21st-century reality. Using the introductory models, they explain how fiscal policy can foster jobless recoveries.

摘要： The ongoing situation in Gaza is horrendous, with, at the time of writing, over 30,000 civilian deaths of whom 72 per cent are women and children. Of somewhat lesser importance than the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, the situation has led to a fracturing of the supporter base of the Hamburg-based football club FC St Pauli due to the stance the club has taken on this issue. This commentary tries to dig into the issues, and explains the sequence of events and the resulting dislocation of some international supporters.