关键词:
縱橫資料迴歸模型
通貨膨脹
債券市場
貨幣政策
新冠肺炎
摘要:
This study investigates the relationship between inflation and bond yields, focusing on 2-year and 10-year maturities, and analyzes bond spreads. To understand the influence of rate hike cycles, interbank rates are also incorporated. We use monthly panel data from developed and emerging markets, spanning January 2002 to December 2022. The panel data regression model results reveal that during rate hikes, both 2-year and 10-year bond yields tend to increase, after controlling for fixed effects. Conversely, rate hikes are associated with a decrease in bond spreads. Additionally, high inflation environments may lead to the undervaluation of certain high-quality bonds. Based on these findings, we recommend that investors closely monitor monetary policy changes, particularly rate hike cycles, and consider investing in bonds with longer maturities.