摘要:
This thesis focuses on the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on merchandise trade. NTMs are broadly defined as policy measures, other than tariffs, which may have an impact on international trade in goods and services. This is an area of emerging importance, for both researchers and policy makers. My research involves three main contributions. I propose new approaches to econometrically estimating the effect of NTMs. In addition, I take novel approaches to modelling these effects in a computable equilibrium (CGE) framework. In order to utilise these econometric and CGE techniques to contribute to an improved understanding on the impacts of NTMs it was necessary for me to gather new data on New Zealand NTMs, which were contributed to an international collaborative project coordinated by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This thesis comprises four applications. The first (chapter two) focuses on an examination of the effect of animal diseases on beef trade; NTMs are frequently applied to protect importers from diseases. The remaining three applications (chapters three, four and five) draw on the new UNCTAD NTM database, to which I contributed New Zealand data; my data contribution was significant covering 3,096 measures from 530 regulations. Chapter three is an econometric application drawing on these new data, while chapters four and five combine econometric and CGE analysis. The first application focuses on the impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) on beef trade. I find that during and after a FMD outbreak, exporting countries substitute away from markets recognised as FMD-free toward lower value markets not recognised as FMD-free. Similarly, a country that has experienced BSE will export less to markets that have not experienced BSE and more to markets that have. Regaining official recognition of FMD-free status may aid recovery but does not negate the effects of a recent FMD outbreak. Th